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Prediction Market Risk, Regulatory + Compliance Consulting
The Regulatory Challenge
Prediction markets occupy a rapidly evolving legal frontier. Platforms offering contracts tied to economic events, elections, sports outcomes, and other real-world occurrences face overlapping and sometimes conflicting regulatory frameworks across multiple jurisdictions including oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), state gaming and financial regulators, and international authorities.
Regulatory scrutiny is accelerating: enforcement actions, trading halts, civil penalties, and reputational damage are all live risks for platforms that fail to build robust compliance infrastructure before regulators come knocking.
How Guidepost Solutions Helps
Guidepost Solutions brings together a multidisciplinary team of former federal prosecutors, regulators, forensic accountants, compliance officers, and technologists to deliver end-to-end risk management services tailored to the unique demands of prediction market operators.
Core Solution Offerings
Why Guidepost Solutions
We are not a traditional law firm or a generalist consulting shop. Guidepost Solutions was built to sit at the intersection of investigation, compliance, and regulatory risk which is the exact terrain prediction market operators must navigate.
- Former Federal Prosecutors
Deep experience prosecuting financial crimes, market manipulation, and complex fraud. Former SDNY prosecutors, DOJ attorneys, and federal agency staff who know how investigators think because we were investigators. - Financial Institutions Expertise
We advise based on banks, exchanges, crypto platforms, and alternative investment vehicles on the full spectrum of AML, BSA, and sanctions compliance. - Global Reach, Local Knowledge
Guidepost operates across the United States, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, with regulatory intelligence in the jurisdictions that matter most to global prediction market operators. - Monitorship Track Record
We have served as court-appointed and DOJ/SEC-mandated monitors in high-profile financial services matters, giving us credibility with regulators and courts that few firms can match.
The question is no longer whether prediction markets will face regulatory scrutiny — it is whether your platform is ready when it arrives.
Guidepost Solutions is available for initial consultations, program assessments, and tailored engagements. Our team works alongside your legal counsel and in-house compliance professionals to deliver solutions that are practical, defensible, and built for the long term.
The Regulatory Landscape at a Glance
Prediction market operators must navigate a complex and dynamic set of regulatory requirements. Key areas of exposure include:
- CFTC jurisdiction over event contracts, Designated Contract Markets (DCM), and Swap Execution Facilities (SEF)
- Anti-money laundering and know-your-customer obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act and FinCEN guidance
- OFAC sanctions screening and compliance for international users and counterparties
- State-level gaming and money transmission licensing requirements that vary significantly by jurisdiction
- Market manipulation and fraud prohibitions under the Commodity Exchange Act
- Potential SEC jurisdiction where contracts are structured as or deemed to be securities
- International regulatory obligations including EU MiCA and equivalent frameworks in the UK, Singapore, and UAE
Experiencia Relevante
MSU Institutional Assessment + RAMAGELLAN MonitorshipEmpire/Liberty Review